A lame duck maybe, but Kasich still wields power

Opposition to Trump hurt Kasich in Ohio, experts say

After Ohio Gov. John Kasich rolled out his budget plan — his last as governor — even he acknowledged that giant chunks of it will likely never pass.

The past 12 months haven’t been the best of times for Kasich, whose re-election landslide in 2014 seemed to propel him toward his run for the presidency. But he lost badly in his presidential primary bid to a real estate mogul with no governing experience, his man leading the Ohio Republican Party got swept out of office, and prominent members of his own party are jockeying to replace him when his term is up at the end of next year.

Does this signal that Kasich is officially a lame-duck governor whose power is on the wane?

The answer depends on who you ask.

Sen. Scott Oelslager, a Canton Republican who heads the Senate Finance Committee that will consider Kasich’s budget plan, said the Republican governor still has the bully pulpit to shape public opinion, a dynamic personality and a deep well of determination.

“I think all those things will make John strong going forward,” said Oelslager, who has known Kasich for 30 years.

House Minority Leader Fred Strahorn, D-Dayton, said Kasich’s forceful personality insulates him from the loss of influence that many lame-duck governors see. “He is a bit of a force of nature,” Strahorn said.

Kasich brushes off suggestions that he’ll be less effective in his final two years.

“You know, they talk about lame duck — they never met me,” he said last month while outlining his plans for economic development in 2017.

Former Gov. Bob Taft, a Republican who is now on faculty at the University of Dayton, agrees that Kasich still wields enormous power, particularly through the state budget and the bully pulpit.

But Taft says a governor in the sunset of his second term faces a heavier lift. He should know. He is the last Ohio governor to serve two four-year terms.

“It’s more difficult,” said Taft. “Obviously when you’re first elected, you come in with a platform and agenda and momentum. That’s also true when you’re re-elected. It’s a fresh start and also you just went through a campaign where you put forward ideas and proposals. So I think the last two years are somewhat more difficult as other elected officials out there start running for governor to replace you.”

Indeed, Attorney General Mike DeWine, Secretary of State Jon Husted, Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor and U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci are among Republicans considering a run for governor. Democrats have a long list as well, including former U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, former Attorney General Richard Cordray and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.

‘Adult in the room’

A year ago, Kasich was running for another job: President of the United States. During a contentious GOP primary season, Kasich positioned himself as the “adult in the room” — someone with a serious governing resume, blue-collar roots and a track record as a compassionate conservative.

Republican voters, however, opted for Donald Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul with a penchant for provocative, blunt talk. Trump would win Ohio by 8 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in the November election.

Kasich never warmed to Trump and even boycotted the Republican National Convention, even though it was held in Cleveland. With his dream of winning the presidency on hold — at least for now — Kasich returned to Ohio, finished writing his latest book and continued to refuse to bend the knee to President Trump.

Some believe that stance has hurt Kasich with key members of his party.

“His POTUS run did not necessarily hurt him, but his continuing opposition to President Trump did,” said Ohio State University political scientist Paul Beck. “He gambled by opposing Trump more openly than virtually any other Republican officeholder and… he lost that gamble.”

The losses didn’t stop with the election. Trump backed Jane Timken for Ohio Republican Party chair over Matt Borges, who had vigorously supported Kasich’s GOP presidential primary run and tepidly backed Trump in the general election. Timken won.

“That certainly was consistent with President Trump’s leadership thus far, which is far from the ‘team of rivals’ approach that many of his predecessors have implemented,” Wright State University political scientist Lee Hannah said. “So far it appears that only his most loyal supporters are in positions of power and Kasich and others are outside looking in.”

Timken said she expects Kasich will mend fences with Trump. The governor attended the presidential inauguration, which some interpreted as an olive branch to the new president.

“Gov. Kasich has said he is not out there clanging the drum against President Trump,” Timken said. “He said that we should all hope for his success.”

Future role

Kasich, 64, has spent nearly his entire adult life in public office and run twice for president. But he will leave the governor’s office in January 2019. Will that be the end of his political career, or can he resurrect his standing within a party that at the moment seems more in lock-step with Trump than with him?

Hannah said much depends on Trump.

“If Trump can remain popular with the base, then Kasich will be outside looking in for a long time,” he said. “However, if Trump’s approval ratings continue to drop, then at some point that GOP leadership will have to distance themselves from the administration to keep Congress in 2018. At this point, Kasich looks well positioned for a primary run in 2020, especially if support of Trump is seen as toxic. I don’t think it is enough for Trump to be polarizing. It would take poor approval ratings combined with scandals or failed policies for Kasich to have an opportunity.”

In the short run, Kasich faces the business of governing Ohio and working with lawmakers to adopt his proposals in the massive 2018-2019 budget.

Republican legislators hedge when asked what they like and don’t like, except when it comes to the governor’s plan to raise taxes on oil and gas producers, which is known as the severance tax.

“The severance tax situation isn’t very palatable within our caucus,” said House Finance Committee Chairman Ryan Smith, R-Bidwell. “Everything else is open for discussion.”

Kasich’s plans to increase the sales tax by half a penny to 6.25 percent and cut income taxes by 17 percent is far from a done deal.

His budget arrives in the General Assembly just weeks after he hit a rough patch with Republican lawmakers late last year when he vetoed controversial bills that would have weakened clean energy rules and banned abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected.

However, he is still the governor and a governor who knows how to have his voice heard.

“If they override on some of this stuff, OK,” he said last week. “If they want to criticize me, that’s OK. That’s life. That’s just the way life is. You think I worry about that stuff? I don’t worry about any of that stuff, OK?”

Kasich’s biggest worry, he said: “That I am not hoisted on my own petard of righteousness.”


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