Analyzing Atlantic 10 tournament: Dayton Flyers favorite for second straight season

Archie Miller expects big crowds of Dayton fans in Pittsburgh

The Dayton Flyers have checked off plenty of items on Archie Miller’s bucket list in the last six seasons — if he has such a list and let’s pretend for a minute that does.

• First outright regular-season conference championship in school history.

• First back-to-back conference titles.

• Most victories in a four-year stretch: 102 and counting.

• Most consecutive appearances in the NCAA tournament: Dayton will set a school record with its fourth straight trip when it hears its name called Sunday.

One thing the Flyers have never won in Miller’s tenure is the Atlantic 10 tournament. Dayton won its only tournament crown in 2003, and the event was held at UD Arena that season. The tournament has taken place at neutral sites since 2005.

For the second straight season, Dayton enters the event as the No. 1 seed. Dayton (24-6) will play No. 8 La Salle (15-14) or No. 9 Davidson (15-14) at noon Friday.

The Flyers will chase the championship in Pittsburgh, 40 miles from Miller’s hometown of Beaver Falls. The tournament moves to PPG Paints Arena after three seasons at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. Next year it moves to the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

“Winning an A-10 title in anyone’s town is fun for me,” said Miller in October at A-10 Media Day at PPG Paints Arena. “I’m excited about being in Pittsburgh in March for the A-10 tournament. We’re in another championship, world-class venue. The city is a sports crazy town. The setup for the fans of all the schools from the hotels to the places they eat to how they maneuver around is gonna be really really comfortable for them. I think this environment may be as juiced as up as any of them we’ve been in. I think when you watch our fans, our fans are going to come. They’re going to be here. I would not be shocked at all if there are thousands of Dayton fans. I think it would be really really fun to win the tournament here, but I think it would be really fun for a lot of reasons.”

Here’s a rundown of the tournament, which starts Wednesday with two games between the bottom four seeds:

Favorite: Despite an 87-81 loss Saturday at George Washington in its regular-season finale, Dayton has to be considered the favorite. It is 6-1 against the four teams seeded behind it.

However, the top seed guarantees nothing. That seed has reached the championship only once in the last six seasons. Saint Louis was the last No. 1 seed to win the championship in 2013. No. 4 seed St. Joseph’s won last season. No. 5 seed Virginia Commonwealth won in 2015. St. Joseph’s was also the No. 4 seed when it won in 2014.

Dark horse: No. 6 seed George Washington (18-13) is tied with Rhode Island (21-9) for longest active winning streak (five games). The Colonials were the only team to top 40 percent from 3-point range in conference play (40.3). They made 13 of 26 against Dayton.

“We’ve been through some stuff,” said interim coach Maurice Joseph. “We’ve been through some blowout wins. We’ve been through heart-wrenching losses, coming back from down 18 on the road. They’ve been through it all. When you have a team that’s been through all that, they become a little battle tested, rougher around the edges. We took a young team at the beginning of the year, and our kids got a little tougher. We’re in a good spot going into Pittsburgh.”

Most to prove: Rhode Island is the No. 4 seed. A strong regular-season finish, including a victory over No. 2 seed VCU (24-7), will put it back in contention for a NCAA berth.

“We have been resilient all season, have wobbled at points and fought back, just like we did tonight,” Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley told reporters Saturday after a 73-70 overtime win against Davidson. “We fought hard all season, and we’re confident going into the Atlantic 10 tournament. This team is ready to do something really special.”

A quarterfinal win against St. Bonaventure, Massachusetts or St. Joseph’s and a semifinal victory against Dayton, La Salle or Davidson likely would assure it of a NCAA tournament berth. Even then, it’ll be a tense Selection Sunday unless it wins the automatic berth. In his latest bracket prediction, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi listed Rhode Island as one of the first four teams left out of the tournament.

Upset potential: No. 10 seed Fordham (13-18) plays No. 7 George Mason (19-12) in the first round at 6 p.m. Thursday. Fordham could beat just about anyone in the league because they did beat VCU, Davidson and Rhode Island and gave Dayton a scare. Fordham faded down the stretch, though, losing to Richmond, George Washington and La Salle.

Player to watch: Richmond senior T.J. Cline is the favorite to win A-10 Player of the Year. The awards will be announced Tuesday. He ranked fifth in the league scoring (18.6 points per game), third in rebounding (8.1) and second in assists (5.8).

No. 3 seed Richmond (19-11) plays George Washington, Saint Louis or Duquesne in the final quarterfinal game at 8:30 p.m. Thursday.


FRIDAY’S GAME

Dayton vs. La Salle/Davidson, noon, NBC Sports Network, FM 95.7, AM 1290 WHIO

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