March Forecast V: Where Dayton Flyers stand in NCAA tournament picture

Rhode Island loss robs UD of top-50 win (for now)

Twenty four days before Selection Sunday, here’s a summary of where the Dayton Flyers stand in the NCAA tournament picture.

Dayton (20-5) takes a five-game winning streak into a 2 p.m. game Saturday against St. Bonaventure at UD Arena. The Flyers rank 29th (up two spots from last week) in the RPI, 33rd (up one spot) in the Pomeroy ratings, 35th (down one spot) in the Sagarin ratings, 31st (down one spot) in the KPI Sports ratings and 33rd (up three spots) in ESPN's Basketball Power Index.

EARLIER COVERAGE: March Forecast IVMarch Forecast III; March Forecast II; March Forecast I

Rhode Island's loss to Fordham on Wednesday leaves Dayton without a top-50 win at the moment. Rhode Island dropped from No. 42 to No. 59 and saw its at-large hopes disappear. The Rams likely will have to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to play in the big dance.

Dayton has one more chance in the regular season to pick up a strong RPI win. It hosts No. 27 VCU on March.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech in Tulsa.

Jerry Palm, CBS: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Iowa State in Buffalo.

Michael Beller, Sports Illustrated: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech.

In his bubble watch, Beller writes: "It's still too early to call either Dayton (19–5, 10–2) or VCU (20–5, 10–2) a lock, but both teams will likely earn that status before the A-10 tournament. The rest of the regular season should be academic for the Flyers. They'll be favored in all six of their remaining games, including a home date with VCU the first week of March. Dayton is likely to have a top-30 RPI, top-35 kenpom.com ranking and 24 wins going into the A-10 tournament, including a 3–3 record against the RPI top 50 and an 11–4 record against the top 100."

RELATED: Twitter reacts to Dayton’s win at Saint Louis

Stewart Mandel, Fox Sports: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Michigan State in Tulsa.

131Sports: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Miami in Tulsa.

Bracketologist: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 California in Tulsa.

USA Today: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 California in Buffalo.

Bracket Matrix: Dayton's average seed is 8.05. That's up from 8.40 last week, and it is listed on all 112 brackets.

In his second Bubble Watch of the season, ESPN's Eamonn Brennan writes of Dayton, "Dayton's win at Rhode Island was a much bigger bummer for the Rams than it was a boost for the Flyers, at least in regards to each team's resume. As emotionally cathartic as a road win like that can be, the Rams absolutely needed it more. Then again, it's fair to note that it was Dayton's second top-50 win of the season, the first of which also came against Rhode Island. Archie Miller's team is snug in the bracket for now, but it's still got work to do to feel safe."

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