Dems face challenge even if Trump stumbles

Few House seats seen as competitive in 2018.

On paper, the 2018 election looks good for Democrats: First-term presidents have traditionally fared poorly during the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are among the worst ever recorded for a president this early in his tenure.

But the reality for Democrats is tougher than it looks.

Years of gerrymandering and a brand that even Democrats admit has struggled to maintain its traditional working class base have caused the party to lose ground in recent elections.

According to the Cook Political Report, only 10 seats are true toss-ups and none of them are in Ohio.

Uncompetitive Ohio

With 15 months until Election Day, it’s way too soon to make predictions, but Ohio will likely remain a challenge for Democrats. The Cook report does include two GOP-held Ohio seats in a category of potentially being competitive — the 1st District seat held by Rep. Steve Chabot of Cincinnati, and the 16th District seat in northeast Ohio that will be open because its occupant, Rep. Jim Renacci of Wadsworth, is running for governor — but a lot will depend on which Democrats decide to run.

In Chabot’s district, rumors of Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune and Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld running have been steady and persistent. But no Democrat has filed petitions to run, according to the Hamilton County Board of Elections, and they have until February to do so.

“It’s one of the most urban districts in Ohio that’s held by a Republican,” said David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report. “And it was Trump’s smallest margin in the state of any seat held by a Republican. We’re waiting to see who gets in.”

In Renacci’s district, Republican state Reps. Christina Hagan of Alliance and Tom Patton of Strongsville, along with Darrell Hartman of Akron, are running on the Republican side, while Aaron Godfrey of North Olmsted is running as a Democrat. Also considering a run as a Republican: former NFL wide receiver and OSU football standout Anthony Gonzalez, GOP sources confirmed last week.

Another possible race to watch is in the 7th district, which includes Canton. Although a reliably Republican seat, Democrat Ken Harbaugh last quarter outraised his opponent: four-term Republican Rep. Bob Gibbs of Lakeville.

A former Navy pilot, Harbaugh’s got both money and an interesting story, but the district he’s running in also backed Trump by big numbers last year.

Rural Ohio “is Trump country,” Wasserman said, and “the Democratic brand is in the gutter in places like this.”

But, he added, if Harbaugh is “anywhere near Bob Gibbs in the polls come this time next year, then Democrats will already be on their way to a House majority.”

Democratic struggles

The reality for Democrats, experts say, is that they may struggle in some districts even when they run solid candidates.

Retired fighter pilot Amy McGrath may be a case in point. When she launched her congressional campaign against Kentucky Republican Andy Barr on Aug. 1, the reaction for a political novice was pretty seismic: Within a few days, she’d received more than 1.2 million views on YouTube, and she was snapped up for interviews by MSNBC and NPR.

But enthusiasm doesn’t necessarily win elections, and Barr’s seat didn’t make Cook’s list of tossups. She may not even emerge as the Democratic nominee. Lexington Mayor Jim Gray has been mentioned as a possible candidate on the Democratic side, and he could well earn the nomination.

And there is this: Barr won in 2016 with 61 percent of the vote, so any Democrat will be swimming upstream.

‘We got the plane down’

Harbaugh says he understands the obstacles in a district like the 7th, where even his own parents voted for Trump.

But he also says people are focused more on results than party affiliations, and he plans to run as an individual who makes his own decisions.

“People are sick and tired of zero solutions coming out of Washington and they want to send someone who can get things done, who cares less about party than problem solving,” he said.

The analogy he gives makes reference to his military background.

“When I lost an engine (flying) off of North Korea, party politics didn’t enter into the next series of decisions we had to make,” he said. “I didn’t turn to my copilot and say, ‘are you Republican or Democrat?’ We got the plane down.”

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