El Nino could mean warmer winter here

El Nino may be back just in time for autumn.

The Climate Prediction Center announced earlier this month that there is a 65 percent chance of El Nino forming by the end of this year. Thus, the agency issued an El Nino Watch. An El Nino is a periodic natural warming of the ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean. During an El Nino, these water temperatures rise to a few degrees above normal for an extended period, typically at least three to five months.

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For most of this past winter into early this year, a La Nina weather pattern was occurring, which is the opposite of El Nino. While the La Nina was considered to be relatively weak, it is likely to blame for drought conditions that developed across the Central and Southern Plains. It is also likely a contributor into the late start to severe weather season in that area. La Nina was also at least in part a factor to our unusual spring which started out relatively warm in February and March but turned unseasonably cold and snowy in April.

You may also recall this past winter was intense, but not as intense as the “polar vortex” winter of 2013-14. But the winter of 2016-2017 saw unseasonably mild thanks to the strongest El Nino on record. In fact, some of the warmest, global monthly average temperatures on record were set during the 2016-2017 El Nino. So, what does it mean if El Nino returns later this year?

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Typically, in the U.S., a strong El Nino can result in very stormy weather across the West Coast. The last El Nino is responsible for nearly ending a decade long severe drought in parts of this region. Warmer than average temperatures also tend to be found from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains into the Ohio Valley.

So, what would an El Nino winter mean for the Miami Valley? Well, first thing is first, we are at a time period when false alarms do occur in El Nino and La Nina forecasting, but conditions do appear favorable for El Nino to develop.

Should one develop, then likely our upcoming winter would tend to be warmer and drier than average. There is still a lot of time to watch to see what happens… but keep an eye out on the Pacific Ocean. It is amazing how just the temperature of the water there can impact the weather in so many parts of the world, including here in Ohio.

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