Perhaps it’s no surprise then that President Trump came to the county Friday to energize the Republican base ahead of November’s midterm elections, which the president has characterized as a referendum on his first two years in office.
“This is certainly a district that could flip in a blue wave,” he said.
But the flip would have to include sizable support in Warren County, which is traditionally a Republican stronghold.
“If Pureval is to win, he’s going to have to at least make some in-roads in Warren County,” said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Pureval doesn’t have to win Warren County, Kondik said, just “cut down the margins and then win Hamilton” County.
“Democrats have a strong candidate who’s articulate, smart, a good fundraiser and good campaigner,” he said. “People still say Chabot is the favorite, but he’s probably facing the toughest contest he’s had in a long time.”
Chabot recognizes he’s engaged in a tough political fight. Elected first in 1994, he served until 2009 when he lost to Democrat Steve Driehaus. But a rematch in 2010 gave Chabot the seat again. In 2011, the district was redrawn to include Warren County, which offsets the more heavily Democratic Hamilton County.
“Everywhere in the district is critical as far as I’m concerned, but there’s no question we hope the people of Warren County come out strongly this year. I anticipate that they will.
“My connections to the district are very deep. My opponents are tenuous at best. He’s the least connected and most liberal opponent that I’ve ever had run against me.”
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“The good news is our message is resonating. Our message is resonating all across Warren County, whether it’s Mason, Lebanon or Springboro,” he said. “And what I love about Warren County is there’s an urban community, there’s a rural community and there’s a large suburban community. It really is a microcosm of a lot of districts across this country.”
“It absolutely is fair to look at this race as a bellwether,” he said. “If in southwestern Ohio, in a district that was drawn to elect a Republican, that Chabot won about two years ago by 20 points and President Trump won by 6 points, if that district goes Democratic, then yeah, I think that’s a bellwether for the rest of the country.”
Trump won the district by 6.6 percentage points in 2016, and his advantage over Hillary Clinton in Warren County was 37.1 percentage points.
“It’s not like he did poorly in the county, he did just fine,” said Kondik of Trump. “But when you compare that to what happened state-wide — an 11 point net shift — you can see some Romney voters were resistant to the president in that county.”
Kondik said Trump’s visit to Warren County draws comparisons to his visit over the summer to Delaware County for the special election between Troy Balderson and Danny O’Connor. Balderson, the Republican, narrowly won that race.
Both Warren and Delaware counties, he said, are historically heavily Republican. And both are heavily populated with people who have attained four-year degrees.
“I mainly disagree with his opponent. I find him fake and not genuine. And the commercials that he’s running are just fake.”
Not all Republicans agreed with Hoyer’s take on Pureval.
“It seems like he’s young and enthusiastic,” said Dennis Fitzgerald, a Procter & Gamble employee who works in Mason. “I am a Republican and I vote straight Republican, I just think it’s time for a change, that’s all.”
“It’s like he’s on the home team,” Fitzgerald said.