Tornadoes are very difficult to forecast more than a few days out because they are small and short-lived. Compare that to hurricanes that meteorologists can track for days as they move toward the coast.
Meteorologists now usually forecast whether atmospheric conditions could produce severe storms including tornadoes as much as five days in advance, but that’s only as if the forecasted storm systems come together. It’s ever changing, so it can’t be statistical enough to provide the public with a longer term heads’ up, like they get with El Niño or hurricane seasons.
But a meteorology professor, Victor Gensini at the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Ill., believes he has found a link between tornado activity in the United States and complicated atmospheric wave patterns that shift every 6 to 8 weeks. Last year, Gensini was able to use his theory to predict tornado activity 10 out of 15 times.
Gensini’s study is based on something called the Global Wind Oscillation - a collection of climate and weather wobbles, like the familiar El Niño and La Nina. But It’s more of a catch-all index that operates as “an atmospheric orchestra,” Gensini said.
Gensini looks for shifts in that big index, especially as Earth transitions out of an El Niño, like now. He focuses on changes of the jet stream — a river of high speed winds at 33,000 feet. In this case it’s going from rather straight east-west to more roller coaster-like plunges north and south, altering energy in the atmosphere and making tornado outbreaks more prevalent, Gensini said.
He has examined the biggest tornado outbreaks over the last 50 years, including a deadly outbreak in April 2011 that killed 316 people. Each occurred during a transitional phase of the jet stream which is similar to the one which we have experienced the last week which has produced numerous tornadoes in the Northern and Central Plains.
Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. said Gensini’s research is promising, although some big challenges and unknowns remain.
This new research is certainly very promising and these types of long-range outlooks will be good for public awareness and emergency managers, however many scientists and meteorologists warn it is far from perfect. That being said, perhaps this is just the beginning of more advanced warning of some of the worst storms on the planet. With the unknown impacts of climate change, longer warning time of impending severe weather may help save more lives and property in the years to come.
Eric Elwell is WHIO StormCenter 7 Chief Meteorologist. Contact him at eric.elwell@coxinc.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.
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